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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-28T23:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43631/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 202512-28T23:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which began at 2025-12-28T17:53Z. The source of this event is an M4.2 flare from N08W28 which peaked at 2025-12-28T22:39Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. A wide region of dimming stretching towards the South and West can be seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211, along with field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Possible/likely arrival signature: Potential weak glancing blow CME signature at 2025-12-31T13:20Z characterized by an increase in B_total from ~4nT to ~11nT, separation of magnetic field components, an increase in solar wind speeds from ~400 km/s to ~540 km/s, temporary increases in solar wind temperature and density, followed by drop in density. This feature may be embedded within the start of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-31T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-12-31T22:04Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/43633/1
Model Inputs:
2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=10.0, Speed=521.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2025-12-29T05:34Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-12-31T22:04Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =20.2 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.4
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-31T09:35Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-31T11:12Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-12-31T15:31Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251229_053400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 59.42 hour(s)
Difference: -8.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-12-29T01:55Z

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